Regime changes and fiscal sustainability in Kenya

Kenya's fiscal policy landscape is characterized by primary deficit spending forcing the government to rely on debt to meet its objectives. The justification often being that as a developing economy, annual growth rates and future prospects may in the short run justify the uptake of debt to finance infrastructural development. However, given potential fiscal limits, fiscal cycles usually alternates between sustainable and unsustainable regimes and this has a bearing on long run sustainability. This study therefore sought to investigate the nature of fiscal policy regime in Kenya and the extent to which fiscal policy is sustainable in the long run taking into account periodic regime shifts. Markov switching models were used to endogenously determine fiscal policy regimes. Regime switching tests were used to test whether No-Ponzi game condition and debt stabilizing condition were met. The results established that regime switching model was suitable in explaining regime sustainable and unsustainable cycles. An investigation of fiscal policy regimes established that both sustainable and unsustainable regimes were dominant, and each lasted for an average of four years. There was evidence to imply the existence of procyclical fiscal policy in Kenya. Regime switching tests for long run sustainability suggested that the No-Ponzi game condition weakly holds in the Kenyan economy. Regime-based sensitivity analysis indicated that persistence of unsustainability regime for more than 4 years could threaten long-run fiscal sustainability.     

高校新农村研究院：科技支撑乡村振兴的有效载体

[目的]较之前开展的新农村建设,乡村振兴战略是一种更高层次的发展手段和目标。文章旨在对高校新农村研究院推动乡村振兴的实践经验和困难问题进行梳理,分析背后的成因与制约因素,以期为以高校新农村研究院为抓手、从科技引领和支撑的角度推动乡村振兴战略的落地实施提供有针对性的建议。[方法]该文从协同创新理论出发,基于对沈阳农业大学新农村发展研究院的实地调研,采用文献梳理、归纳总结和定性分析等方法对高校新农村研究院为乡村振兴战略提供科技支撑的机理、模式、作用和困难问题进行了梳理。[结果]高校新农村发展研究院通过整合政府、高校、企业等多方资源,从技术协同、人才协同与理念协同3方面为乡村振兴提供了有效支撑。但目前各级政府对高校新农村研究院的作用地位还缺乏充分认识,存在财政支持不到位、技术推广激励与考评机制不完善等问题。[结论]整合各方科技创新资源,构建起各类主体跨界协同、不同技术集成应用、创新资源全链配置、关联产业融合发展的新型农业科技协同创新体系;进一步强化高校新农村发展研究院在农业科技服务中的主体地位,增强财政对新农村发展研究院的持续投入,改革高校农技推广人员职称评定与考核激励机制。     

2017年土地科学研究重点进展评述及2018年展望 ——土地管理领域分报告

研究目的：归纳分析2017年国内外土地管理领域的研究进展，展望研究趋势。研究方法：文献统计法。研究结果：2017年国内外在土地制度改革、土地权属与登记以及土地政策法律三个方面有着共同研究焦点。国外研究关注了土地管理与管制问题，国内研究主要围绕农村“三块地”改革、不动产登记政策效应和配套法律存在的问题、农村土地确权政策绩效和存在的问题、农村土地“三权分置”的法律关系、土地财政与土地违法和土地腐败等之间的关系、土地用途管制与耕地保护以及土地管理学科研究等方面。研究结论：2017年土地管理领域研究仍基于实践导向的探索、总结与凝练，围绕农村土地制度改革路径、土地管理体制机制与政策效应研究有所发展。2018年将重点关注农村土地制度三项改革试点成效和修法研究、农村土地“三权分置”的政策绩效和法律关系、租购并举及集体土地建设租赁住房的体制机制、土地管理供给侧结构性改革、自然资源资产管理体制和耕地保护政策与生态补偿机制研究等。     

Policy lessons from spatiotemporal enrollment patterns of payment for ecosystem service programs in Argentina

Payment for ecosystem services schemes (PES) are lauded as a market-based solution to curtail deforestation and restore degraded ecosystems. However, PES programs often fail to conserve sites under strong long-term deforestation pressures. Underperformance, in part, is likely due to adverse selection. Spatial adverse selection occurs when landowners are more likely to enroll parcels with low deforestation pressure than parcels with high deforestation pressure. Temporal adverse selection arises when parcels are enrolled for short time periods. In both cases, financial resources are allocated without having a sizeable impact on long-term land use change. Improving program performance to overcome these shortcomings requires understanding attributes of landowners and their parcels across large scales to identify spatial and temporal enrollment patterns that drive adverse selection. In this paper, we examine these patterns in Argentina’s PES program in Chaco forest, a global deforestation hotspot. Our study area covers 252,319 km². Results from multinomial logistic regression models showed that large parcels of enrolled land and parcels owned by absentee landowners exhibit greater evidence of spatiotemporal adverse selection than smaller parcels or parcels owned by local landowners. Furthermore, parcels managed under land use plans for conservation and restoration are more likely to be associated with adverse selection than parcels managed for financial returns such as harvest of non-timber forest products, silviculture, and silvopasture. However, prior to recommending that PES programs focus on land uses with higher potential earnings, a greater understanding is needed of the degree to which these land uses meet ecological and biodiversity goals of PES programs. We suggest that increased spatial targeting of enrollment, along with enrollment of local landowners and further incentives for land uses that support conservation and restoration, could promote long-term conservation of forest lands.     

Comparing the spatial and temporal dynamics of urban expansion in Guangzhou and Shenzhen from 1975 to 2015: A case study of pioneer cities in China’s rapid urbanization

The distinct urbanization process of China has attracted worldwide attention because of its impressive speed, massive scale, and policy intervention. However, the interrelationship between urban expansion and government policies is still not well understood. The Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration of China is the first national pioneering urbanization area since the implementation of the policy “Reform and Opening-up” in the late 1970s. Here we compared the spatial and temporal patterns of urbanization in two leading cities of the Pearl River Delta (i.e., Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the provincial capital and the first Special Economic Zone of China, respectively) from 1975 to 2015, using Landsat data integrated with urban growth and landscape metrics analysis, and examined possible footprints of major economic and urbanization policies. Our results illustrated that urban land areas in both Guangzhou and Shenzhen have experienced magnificent annual growth rates at 8.1% and 11%, respectively between 1975 and 2015. On average, Shenzhen witnessed substantially higher urban growth rate than Guangzhou during the past four decades, particularly in the initial period (1978–1990) when the Reform and Opening-up policy was launched and Shenzhen was designated as the first Special Economic Zone in China in the late 1970s. However, the speed of urban expansion in Shenzhen became considerably lower than Guangzhou from 2005 to 2015, subject to physical conditions and a series of urban land use policies. Both cities showed a generally similar dynamics of urban growth forms with leapfrogging as the predominant type of urban growth at first and then edge-expansion while the contribution of infilling in Shenzhen was higher than that in Guangzhou, especially since 2005. The urbanization processes characterized by landscape and urban growth metrics revealed that a diffusion-coalescence-diffusion-coalescence process was identified for Guangzhou, while Shenzhen was generally consistent with the diffusion-coalescence urban growth hypothesis.     

The factors influencing the profitability of leased land on dairy farms in Ireland

The Republic of Ireland possesses a land market that is constrained by minimal sales each year, less than 1%. In an effort to capitalise on milk quota abolition and to increase dairy production, a suite of tax incentives has recently been introduced in the Republic of Ireland to encourage land mobility and long-term leasing among Irish dairy farmers. Using Irish Farm Accountancy Database Network (FADN) data from 2011–2017 to examine this, a Heckman sample selection model explores two aspects; (i) the factors that influence a farmer’s decision to rent, or continue renting, land and (ii) the profitability of dairy farmers renting in land. We find self-selection into the rental market is driven by farm traits that include a high level of hired labour, the presence of a successor, intensive farming practices and dairy discussion group membership. The results show that rental agreements assist farms in achieving economies of scale. The findings provide evidence to support government intervention such as tax incentives for renting out land and knowledge sharing discussion groups.     

The role of university Knowledge Transfer Offices: Not just commercialize research outputs!

While there is a prevailing rich body of studies on the role of university knowledge transfer office (KTO) in the commercialization process as part of the Third Mission, research on its role in community engagement activities is relatively neglected, even as funding agencies and policy makers conceive these as instrumental to sustaining social and economic development. This article focuses on the role of university KTO in supporting, facilitating or undertaking Third Mission community engagement activities. Drawing on data from the annual Higher Education Business and Community Interaction survey for the years 2007–2012, this paper empirically explores the relationship between a range of Third Mission activities by university KTO and performance of three key business-community services – provision of consultancy, provision of continuous professional development courses (CPD), and leasing of facilities and equipment (FE). It emerges that the routines of developing strategic plan and creating spin-off are positively associated with all types of community knowledge transfer (CKT) activities. Further, the routines of establishing partnerships with local and regional bodies, and licensing are positively related to CPD and FE, respectively. The article is concluded with implications for theory, practice, policy, and suggestions for future research.     

Fiscal and monetary interdependence

Where classical economics integrates the quantity theory of money with the concept of Ricardian equivalence, the tendency of recent macroeconomic presentations is to focus either upon money and inflation or upon taxation and debt. That neglect of classical monetary–fiscal integration is surprising, given an initiative by the International Monetary Fund that set credit, money, and fiscal policy within a single structure. This article places those ‘credit counterparts of broad money’ in the context of the Great Depression and the recent global financial crisis. The upshot is a set of conclusions: that, to counter the prospect of deflation, quantitative easing is a weak policy response; that fiscal deficits are better; and that cuts in taxation are preferable to increased government spending.     

Beyond antitrust populism: Towards robust antitrust

The populist use of competition policies is on the rise again, associated with the growth of big-tech companies in the era of digital platforms. This article sees antitrust populism as a re-emerging force in the United States and Europe via greater politicisation of competition law enforcement. It addresses the basic tenets of antitrust populism in order to expose the fundamental problems that populist use of competition law entails. I argue for a rethink of antitrust policy on the intellectual foundations laid down by what Mark Pennington describes as ‘robust political economy’. We need greater regulatory humility and antitrust enforcement which takes both innovation and welfare seriously.     

Bogotá's Left Turn: Counter-Neoliberalization in Colombia

For the political left, decentralization has increased both the appeal and the importance of governing the city, and yet sharp constraints limit the left's transformative potential when it controls that level of government alone. Bogotá is an important case in point under the recent mayoral administration of Gustavo Petro (2012–15), a demobilized guerrilla leader who sought to implement a series of urban policy reforms that together represent one of the most substantively radical and intellectually coherent attempts to challenge neoliberalism in all of Latin America. Focusing on the four policy arenas through which Petro hoped to transform the city (environment, housing, transport, and trash collection), the article documents the veto power of the firms whose privileges he threatened, as well as the tools through which they derailed reform. In contrast to the failure of his political economy agenda, Petro was indeed able to enact a number of progressive social policy reforms precisely because they did not threaten the profitability of the city's entrenched growth machine.